Renowned music industry analyst Bob Lefsetz recently published a post in his blog The Lefsetz Letter about his predictions for the music industry for 2025.
You can find the original blog post here but below is my summary of Bob’s predictions…
Music Industry Trends and Observations:
- Smaller Acts Thrive Outside the Mainstream: Independent artists focusing on touring and merchandise are gaining traction, while pop acts dominate media attention.
- Country Music’s Rise: Country is emerging as the new mainstream genre, borrowing from rock’s anthem-style appeal and building long-term careers rather than relying solely on hits.
- Spotify Controversy: Artists continue to criticize Spotify payouts, often misunderstanding the streaming model, which is based on shared pools, not per-stream rates. Spotify’s playlist practices may face scrutiny following Liz Pelly’s book.
- Classic Rock Decline: Older rock icons are aging out; fans should seize opportunities to see them live.
Artist Dynamics:
- Authenticity and Songwriting: Audiences increasingly value artists who write their own songs, as seen with Zach Bryan and Billy Strings. Authenticity is prized over formulaic, producer-driven tracks.
- Catalog Sales and Long-Term Consequences: Selling music catalogs offers short-term financial gain but compromises creative control, often leading to regret when songs are commercialized without artist input.
Touring and Live Performance:
- Touring Economics: Ticket prices remain high as demand persists. Successful acts leverage their popularity for better deals; smaller acts struggle with club revenue splits.
- Skill Over Gimmicks: Acts succeeding in clubs and theaters rely on musical talent and songwriting rather than flashy production.
Industry and Media Shifts:
- Major Labels and Their Limits: Labels increasingly depend on their back catalog for revenue while facing competition from innovative publishers like Primary Wave.
- Streaming Misconceptions: Myths about per-stream payments and platform payouts persist among the public, further muddying understanding of the digital music economy.
- Radio’s Decline: Terrestrial music radio continues its slow demise, overshadowed by digital alternatives.
Broader Cultural Observations:
- Audience Sophistication: Fans are discerning, valuing unique, honest artistry over corporate polish.
- Pop Formula Fatigue: Paint-by-numbers hits dominate mainstream playlists but lack the substance needed for enduring success. There’s a call for new acts to draw inspiration from classic songwriters like the Beatles for melody, structure, and vocal quality.
In essence, the music industry is evolving, with authenticity, skilled artistry, and adaptability becoming more critical in a landscape where major labels, traditional media, and pop formulas are losing influence.
In a nutshell it looks like we are in for some interesting times ahead.
What predictions do you reckon will come true for 2025? Do you have some of your own to share? All I can say is watch this space.
